Hurricane IVAN
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HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
29.6N 88.2W 36 X X X 36 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 4 3 8
32.0N 87.7W 8 19 1 X 28 ST MARKS FL 1 6 4 3 14
33.5N 87.0W X 17 4 1 22 APALACHICOLA FL 5 9 2 1 17
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL 10 9 1 1 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 PENSACOLA FL 22 8 X X 30
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 5 7 MOBILE AL 26 5 1 X 32
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8 GULFPORT MS 27 3 X X 30
CHARLESTON SC X X X 6 6 BURAS LA 29 X X X 29
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4 NEW ORLEANS LA 19 2 X X 21
WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA 3 2 X 1 6
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W 7 7 1 1 16
FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W 34 X X X 34
VENICE FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 28N 89W 50 X X X 50
TAMPA FL X 1 1 2 4 GULF 28N 91W 7 1 X 1 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU
C FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI
D FROM 1AM FRI TO 1AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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