Tropical Storm MATTHEW
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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.5N 90.9W 33 X X X 33 BURAS LA 40 X X X 40
33.5N 91.0W 12 6 1 X 19 NEW ORLEANS LA 49 X X X 49
36.0N 91.5W X 10 3 X 13 NEW IBERIA LA 45 X X X 45
ST MARKS FL X 1 2 X 3 PORT ARTHUR TX 2 X 1 X 3
APALACHICOLA FL X 2 2 X 4 GULF 29N 85W X 2 1 X 3
PANAMA CITY FL X 3 2 X 5 GULF 29N 87W 3 4 X X 7
PENSACOLA FL 4 6 1 X 11 GULF 28N 89W 15 X X X 15
MOBILE AL 16 2 X X 18 GULF 28N 91W 99 X X X 99
GULFPORT MS 27 1 X X 28 GULF 28N 93W 39 X X X 39
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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