Tropical Storm BERYL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27) X(27)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) X(24)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) X(28)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 4(30) X(30)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 19(30) 1(31) X(31)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 2(21) X(21)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18)
CONCORD NH 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
BOSTON MA 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 15(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 1 8( 9) 21(30) 14(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 10(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
HARTFORD CT 34 1 8( 9) 12(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 2 13(15) 20(35) 7(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW YORK CITY 34 2 15(17) 13(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 2 12(14) 10(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
TRENTON NJ 34 3 12(15) 9(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 7 22(29) 9(38) X(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BALTIMORE MD 34 2 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
DOVER DE 34 7 15(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
WASHINGTON DC 34 2 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 17 23(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NORFOLK VA 34 13 10(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
RALEIGH NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 15 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WILMINGTON NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 366N 737W 34 85 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
12 366N 737W 50 15 11(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
12 366N 737W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 379N 731W 34 46 32(78) 6(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
24 379N 731W 50 3 24(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
24 379N 731W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
36 396N 715W 34 7 28(35) 28(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
36 396N 715W 50 X 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
36 396N 715W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 413N 686W 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 22(43) 8(51) 1(52) X(52)
48 413N 686W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15)
48 413N 686W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 449N 615W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29)
72 449N 615W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
72 449N 615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 470N 520W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16)
96 470N 520W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
96 470N 520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 50 50 45 40 35 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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