Tropical Storm ERNESTO
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 3(15)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 3(16)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 3(18)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 3(18)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 3(19)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 2(19)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 3(20)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 4(23) 2(25)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 2(24) 1(25)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) 1(31)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25) 1(26)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 1(22) 1(23)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 2(32) 1(33)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) 1(38) 1(39)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) 2(27) X(27)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 16(41) 2(43) X(43)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 11(42) 1(43) X(43)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 17(31) 6(37) 1(38) X(38)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
JACKSONVILLE 34 1 8( 9) 20(29) 10(39) 2(41) X(41) 1(42)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 24(30) 24(54) 4(58) 1(59) 1(60) X(60)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 15 33(48) 16(64) 1(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66)
ORLANDO FL 50 X 10(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21)
ORLANDO FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 21 34(55) 13(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 10(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 37 29(66) 6(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
FT PIERCE FL 50 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 56 19(75) 2(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
W PALM BEACH 50 6 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MIAMI FL 34 75 9(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
MIAMI FL 50 25 6(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MIAMI FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 71 3(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
MARATHON FL 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KEY WEST FL 34 30 3(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
MARCO ISLAND 34 57 17(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
MARCO ISLAND 50 7 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MARCO ISLAND 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 43 24(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
FT MYERS FL 50 2 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
FT MYERS FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 20 24(44) 3(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
VENICE FL 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 10 24(34) 8(42) 2(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45)
TAMPA FL 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 35 9(44) 3(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 13 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18)
ANDROS 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
HAVANA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 256N 809W 34 76 8(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
12 256N 809W 50 22 11(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
12 256N 809W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 275N 811W 34 35 33(68) 7(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
24 275N 811W 50 1 21(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
24 275N 811W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 299N 806W 34 3 14(17) 29(46) 9(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58)
36 299N 806W 50 X X( X) 16(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
36 299N 806W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 325N 797W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 25(38) 10(48) X(48) 1(49)
48 325N 797W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
48 325N 797W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
72 370N 785W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 4(25) 1(26)
72 370N 785W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
72 370N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 405N 780W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15)
96 405N 780W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
96 405N 780W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 430N 780W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
120 430N 780W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 430N 780W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 50 55 60 30 25 25
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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