Tropical Depression EMILIA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006
EMILIA REMAINS AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A 1430Z SSM/I
OVERPASS. SINCE EMILIA IS OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR LESS AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
IN LESS THAN 36 HR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.3N 119.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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