Tropical Storm EMILIA
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EMILIA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.3W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 65SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 111.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 75SW 85NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
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FORECASTER STEWART
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