Hurricane ILEANA
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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006
IN ADDITION TO WARMING CLOUDS TOPS...ILEANA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS
STRUCTURE WITH THE EYE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS DEFINED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND BE DISSIPATED BY
120 HR.
ILEANA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
YIELDING A SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 320/5. A LONGER TERM MOTION
OF 305/5 IS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. IGNORING THE GFS
AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CONSENSUS-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT ILEANA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SAME GENERAL REASONING AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP DGSR. THE 34 KT WIND RADII
WERE CONTRACTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 22.0N 117.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.4N 117.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 120.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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