Hurricane ILEANA
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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE
IS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...ARE
4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT ILEANA HAS REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS APPROACHING LOWER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT ILEANA
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
ILEANA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS ILEANA TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT ILEANA WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW
BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 19.1N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 20.8N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 23.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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