Hurricane LANE
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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE IN THE
EYEWALL OF LANE...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED. MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-LEVEL EYE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AN INDICATION THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS 6 HR AGO...SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 70 KT. LANE SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
RATHER COLD WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE LANE TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9. LANE SHOULD TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF LANE SHOULD MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 19.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 20.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 21.4N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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