Hurricane PAUL
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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.8W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 114.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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