Tropical Storm DOUGLAS
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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014
Douglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep
convection. Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the
tropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a
tropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and
possibly an ASCAT pass later today. Regardless, cold water and dry,
stable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression
soon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours.
Dissipation is forecast by day 5.
The initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt. A mid-level high
centered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from
making much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift
westward during the next 48 hours. At the same time, mid-level
ridging will build over the western United States. Douglas is
therefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after
36 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the
right a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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