Tropical Depression DOUGLAS
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014
The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small
area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are about
the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed.
Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while
it moves over cold water within a more stable environment. The
latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous
one. Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it
traverses sub-24C waters. The low should dissipate in about 4 days
according to the global model guidance.
The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at
about 4 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat
over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which
should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit.
Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the
latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous
one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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