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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
The satellite presentation is somewhat improved this evening with
the clouds near the embedded center of circulation cooling to -80C.
Furthermore, an earlier SSMI/S overpass revealed development of a
small banding eye feature in the cloud pattern, despite the 8-10 kt
of northerly shear. Accordingly, the initial intensity is kept at
65 kt for this advisory. Little change in strength is expected
during the next 12-24 hours, then gradual weakening is anticipated
through the remaining period as indicated by the SHIPS intensity
model, the global models, and the Florida State Superensemble. The
aforementioned weakening trend is based on the expectation that the
cyclone will be moving into an area of large-scale subsidence
and drier air spreading southward from Baja California and northwest
Mexico. The increasingly unfavorable environment should result in
Carlos becoming a remnant low in 3 days.
Carlos has continued to move west-northwestward or 295/5 kt over
the past 12 hours. A turn to the north-northwest is expected
Wednesday morning as the cyclone enters a growing weakness in the
subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico. Carlos
is forecast to continue on this general motion until dissipation in
5 days. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the left
of the previous advisory to side with the reliable TVCN model
consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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