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HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
2100 UTC MON JUN 15 2015
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 20(21) 24(45) 6(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 1 21(22) 18(40) 4(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46)
MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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