ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional
satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold
cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the
eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly
over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the
initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should
peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a
maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the
SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down
through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression
by day 5.
The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores
continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly
mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in
agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48
and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster
west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast
to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast
beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and
TVCE consensus models.
The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT
overpasses.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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