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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the
past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in
the infrared Dvorak enhancement. This would suggest that weakening
is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held
at 100 kt. Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches
sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure,
only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term. Much
colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment
should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores
could become a tropical storm within 48 hours. The cyclone is
expected to be a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast
is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36
hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The
SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems
unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the
entire forecast period.
Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should
turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds
westward from northern Mexico. A turn back to the northwest and
then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the
ridge. The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than
they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the
UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east. The new NHC track
forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much
different from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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