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HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 1(25)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 5(21) X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 5(11) 2(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17)
MANZANILLO 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 8(10) 24(34) 27(61) 18(79) 3(82) X(82)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 20(47) 2(49) 1(50)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15(27) 1(28) 1(29)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 14(35) 3(38)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN