ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015
Deep convection associated with the depression is becoming less
organized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the
eastern and southeastern part of the circulation. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB. North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to
diminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving
into a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values.
Degeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the
latest global model guidance. Although not explicitly indicated in
the forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before
dissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection.
The depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has
leveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt. A low-level ridge to the
north should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until
dissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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