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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015
Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared
depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to
the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.
Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of
the cyclone's surface center. Subsequently, the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB. Guidance still indicates that the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of
the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.
The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt. The depression is
forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system
over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days. As the tropical
cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow
collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a
generally north-northwestward direction or meander until
dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and
is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF
blend) model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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