ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017
Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly
low-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications
support an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for
this advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not
expected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is
expected to occur in 36-48 h.
The initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low
moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of
days. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN.
This is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For
additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN