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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017
Eugene continues to weaken as it traverses SSTs below 26 deg C.
The central deep convection is gradually becoming eroded, and the
current intensity is estimated at 60 kt which is the mean of Dvorak
CI numbers from SAB and TAFB. Although the storm continues to
exhibit a fairly symmetrical upper-level outflow structure, it will
be moving over increasingly cooler waters for the next few days.
Continued weakening is likely, and the official intensity forecast
is very close to the latest model consensus. Eugene should
degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday morning.
The motion remains near 325/9. There are no important changes to
the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level anticyclone to the
northeast of Eugene should maintain a generally northwestward
heading for the next few days, and until dissipation. A slight
leftward bend is likely in a couple of days while the weakening
cyclone becomes steered more by the low-level flow. The official
forecast track is close to the latest corrected consensus
prediction.
Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during
the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current
conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather
office for additional information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.3N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 22.6N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 23.8N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 24.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 26.8N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 28.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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