ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Convection continues to gradually decline with cloud tops of -20C to -25C now located near the low-level center and in the northern semicircle. Although the convective pattern has taken on more of a stratiform appearance, an 1840Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated that Hilary is still a tropical storm based on several 35- to 37-kt wind vectors located in the northeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Continued steady weakening is expected as Hilary moves over SSTs near 21C and ingests stable stratocumulus clouds throughout the forecast period, with the cyclone likely degenerating into a remnant low pressure system tonight or early Monday. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on Hilary moving west-northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by the shallow cyclone turning a little more westward under the influence of brisk easterly tradewinds until dissipation occurs by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1800Z 26.7N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 27.2N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 27.5N 134.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:10:18 UTC