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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops
associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed,
especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A
timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the
southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level
center is located a little south of recent position estimates
using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt.
The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best
agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend
of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed
toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind
shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours.
These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep
convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the
trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the
various consensus aids.
Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The
cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as
it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a
trough located well west of southern California is expected to
weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down
and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the
previous forecast was required.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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