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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Georgette remains a very compact tropical storm. Satellite images
show that the system remains sheared, with the low-level center
estimated to be near on the northeast side of the main of area of
deep convection. The system's outflow is also restricted on the
east side due to the shear. The Dvorak estimates remains steady at
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at
that value.
The storm continues to move south of due west, or 260 degrees, at 10
kt. A slightly slower west-southwest to southwest motion is expected
during the next couple of days. However, as much larger and stronger
Frank passes to the north, the steering flow should cause Georgette
to stall and then turn northeastward or northward. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted southward during the first 48 hours and
then eastward from 60-96 hours, trending toward the latest consensus
models.
Georgette is expected to remain relatively steady in strength during
the next couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear persists.
However, after Frank passes to the north of Georgette, weakening
should occur when the system moves along Frank's trough axis and
gradually becomes more embedded in its circulation. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near
the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Georgette is
predicted to dissipate in 5 days, it is possible that it could open
into a trough sooner than that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 15.5N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.0N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.3N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.7N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 14.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 15.2N 123.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 18.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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