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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP98):
Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with an area 
of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined.  However, 
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains 
disorganized.  Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or 
northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the 
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western East Pacific: 
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form during the next few days while moving toward 
the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western 
portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on 
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central 
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi