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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fernanda, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

1. Western East Pacific (EP99): 
Satellite wind data indicate the circulation associated with an area 
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands is gradually becoming better defined. Although its 
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system. 
A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph over 
the far western portion of the basin, and then crosses into the 
Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the 
next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by 
midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Public Advisories on Fernanda are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. 
Forecast/Advisories on Fernanda are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2. 

Forecaster Reinhart