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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located southwest of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are associated with a weak trough of low pressure.  
This system is forecast to move slowly westward, and an area of low 
pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Subsequent 
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the middle to latter part of the week while 
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of the week. Gradual 
development of the disturbance will be possible after that 
time while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the 
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Kelly