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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023
Satellite imagery indicates that the storm is producing more
organized convection and curved bands now wrap about half way around
the center. The system appears to be on a strengthening trend with
visible satellite images showing a compact structure. The initial
intensity has increased up to 40 kt, which is slightly above the
latest Dvorak estimates, making it a tropical storm.
Fernanda is moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through the next few days at a slower
pace as it moves towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around
mid-week, the system is anticipated to move more westward at a
faster forward speed due to a strengthening ridge to its north.
There is some spread in the models, especially at days 4 and 5, but
they generally agree on the future track. No significant changes
were made from the previous forecast.
Steady to rapid intensification is possible during the next 36 hours
as Fernanda remains over warm 29C waters in low wind shear
conditions. Fernanda could reach a peak intensity around 80 kt
Monday and Tuesday, and some models suggest a slightly higher
strength. By late Tuesday, the system is expected to move over
cooler waters and into a drier environment which should lead to a
weakening trend. The new NHC forecast shows the intensity increase
at a faster rate during the next 24 to 36 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 15.0N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.3N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.7N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 16.9N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 17.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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